Lawrence R Klein Collegiate Professor of Economics, Professor of Economics, College of Literature, Science, and the Arts, Center Director, Survey Research Center and Research Professor, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research
Biography
Dr. Shapiro is a macroeconomist who has carried out research on business cycles, fiscal and monetary policy, consumption and saving, financial decision-making, economics of aging, and economic measurement. His current research includes using naturally-occurring data, also known as big data, for studying economic outcomes. This work uses checking and credit card accounts to estimate how spending responds to income. He also studies saving for retirement and long-term care using survey and financial account data. Currently, he co-leads a project that aims to re-engineer how inflation and GDP statistics are constructed by building them up from item-level retail transactions.
Re-Inventing Measurement of Key Economic IndicatorsFunded Research
- A Census-Enhanced Health and Retirement Study: A Proposal to Create and Analyze an HRS Dataset Enhanced with Characteristics of Employers
- Credit and Labour Market Foundations of the Macroeconomy
- Harnessing Naturally-Occurring Data to Study Financial Change of Older Americans
- Re-Inventing Measurement of Key Economic Indicators
Publications
- Lee, Minjoon, Shapiro, Matthew D, Ameriks, John , Briggs, Joseph , Caplin, Andrew , Tonetti, Christopher . 2020. Older Americans Would Work Longer If Jobs Were Flexible. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12(1):174-209.
- Kimball, Miles S, Shapiro, Matthew D, Tyler Shumway, Zhang, Jing . 2020. Portfolio rebalancing in general equilibrium. Journal of Financial Economics 135(3):816-834.
- John Ameriks, Joseph Briggs, Andrew Caplin, Shapiro, Matthew D, Christopher Tonetti. 2020. Long-Term-Care Utility and Late-in-Life Saving. Journal of Political Economy 128(6):2375-2451.
- John Ameriks, Kezdi, Gabor, Lee, Minjoon, Shapiro, Matthew D. 2020. Heterogeneity in Expectations, Risk Tolerance, and Household Stock Shares: The Attenuation Puzzle. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 38(3):633-646.
- Gelman, Michael Lee, Shachar Kariv, Shapiro, Matthew D, Dan Silverman, Steven Tadelis. 2020. How individuals respond to a liquidity shock: Evidence from the 2013 government shutdown. Journal of Public Economics 189:103917.
- Kezdi, Gabor, Lee, Minjoon, Shapiro, Matthew D, Ameriks, John . 2019. Heterogeneity in Expectations, Risk Tolerance, and Household Stock Shares: The Attenuation Puzzle. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
- Hemphill, Libby, Shapiro, Matthew D. 2019. Appealing to the base or to the moveable middle? Incumbents' partisan messaging before the 2016 U.S. congressional elections. Journal of Information Technology & Politics 16(4):325-341.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Flaaen, Aaron , Sorkin, Isaac . 2019. Reconsidering the Consequences of Worker Displacements: Firm versus Worker Perspective. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11(2):193-227.
- Gabriel Ehrlich, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, Johnson, David Scott, Shapiro, Matthew D. 2019. Minding Your Ps and Qs: Going from Micro to Macro in Measuring Prices and Quantities. AEA Papers and Proceedings 109:438-443.
- Levenstein, Margaret C, Shapiro, Matthew D, Weinberg, Daniel H, Abowd, John M, Belli, Robert F, Cressie, Noel , Folch, David C, Holan, Scott H, Olson, Kristen M, Reiter, Jerome P, Smyth, Jolene D, Soh, Leen-Kiat , Spencer, Bruce D, Spielman, Seth E, Vilhuber, Lars , Wikle, Christopher K. 2019. Effects of a Government-Academic Partnership: Has the NSF-Census Bureau Research Network Helped Improve the US Statistical System?. Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology
- Daniel H. Weinberg, John M. Abowd, Robert F. Belli, Noel Cressie, David C. Folch, Scott H. Holan, Levenstein, Margaret C, Kristen M. Olson, Jerome P. Reiter, Shapiro, Matthew D, Jolene D. Smyth, Leen-Kiat Soh, Bruce D. Spencer, Seth E. Spielman, Lars Vilhuber, Christopher K. Wikle. 2018. Effects of a Government-Academic Partnership: Has the NSF-Census Bureau Research Network Helped Improve the US Statistical System?. Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Hemphill, Libby. 2017. Politicians and the Policy Agenda: Does Use of Twitter by the U.S. Congress Direct New York Times Content?. Policy & Internet 9(1):109-132.
- Hemphill, Libby, Shapiro, Matthew D, Guberman, Joshua , Schmitz, Carol , Otterbacher, Jahna , Park, Han Woo. 2016. Quantifying Toxicity and Verbal Violence on Twitter. Proceedings of the 19th ACM Conference on Computer Supported Cooperative Work and Social Computing Companion :277-280.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Silverman, Daniel Susman, Gelman, M , Kariv, S , Tadelis, S . 2014. Microeconomics. Harnessing naturally occurring data to measure the response of spending to income. Science (New York, N.Y.) 345(6193):212-215.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Dominguez, Kathryn . 2013. Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?. American Economic Review 103(3):147-52.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Elsby, Michael W. L.. 2012. Why Does Trend Growth Affect Equilibrium Employment? A New Explanation of an Old Puzzle. American Economic Review 102(4):1378-1413.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Sahm, Claudia R, Slemrod, Joel . 2012. Check in the Mail or More in the Paycheck: Does the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus Depend on How It Is Delivered?. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 4(3):216-250.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Sahm, Claudia R, Slemrod, Joel . 2010. Household Response to the 2008 Tax Rebate: Survey Evidence and Aggregate Implications. Tax Policy and the Economy. Vol. 24. :69-110.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Sahm, C R, Slemrod, J . 2010. Household response to the 2008 tax rebate: Survey evidence and aggregate implications. Tax Policy and the Economy 24:69-110.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Slemrod, J . 2009. Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?. American Economic Review 99(2):374-379. PMCID: PMC3522430.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2009. Taxes and business investment: Lessons from the past decade, Discussion. Tax policy lessons from the 2000s
- Kimball, Miles S, Shapiro, Matthew D, Sahm, Claudia R. 2009. Risk Preferences in the PSID: Individual Imputations and Family Covariation. American Economic Review 99(2):363-68.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2009. Taxes and business investment: Lessons from the past decade, Discussion. Tax policy lessons from the 2000s
- Kimball, Miles S, Shapiro, Matthew D, Sahm, C . 2008. Imputing Risk Tolerance From Survey Responses. Journal of the American Statistical Association 103(483):1028-1038.
- House, Christopher L, Shapiro, Matthew D. 2008. Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation. American Economic Review 98(3):737-768.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Gorodnichenko, Yuriy . 2007. Monetary Policy When Potential Output Is Uncertain: Understanding the Growth Gamble of the 1990s. Journal of Monetary Economics 54(4):1132-1162.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Geske, Michael , Ramey, Valerie A. 2007. Why Do Computers Depreciate?. Hard-to-Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Memory of Zvi Griliches
- House, Christopher L, Shapiro, Matthew D. 2006. Phased-in tax cuts and economic activity. American Economic Review 96(5):1835-1849.
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Shapiro, Matthew D. 2006. Monetary policy when potential output is uncertain : understanding the growth gamble of the 1990s.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2005. Comment on W. Erwin Diewert's, "Index Number Theory Using Differences Rather Than Ratios". Celebrating Irving Fisher: The Legacy of a Great Economist :361-366.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2005. Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates: Comment. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004 19:148-156.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2005. Comments on 'Index number theory using differences rather than ratios'. American Journal of Economics and Sociology 64 (1) : 361-366
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2005. Comments on ‘Index number theory using differences rather than ratios’. American Journal of Economics and Sociology 64 (1) : 361-366
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2005. Comment on W. Erwin Diewert’s, “Index Number Theory Using Differences Rather Than Ratios”. Celebrating Irving Fisher: The Legacy of a Great Economist :361-366.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2003. Scanner Data and Price Indexes.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Slemrod, Joel . 2003. Did the 2001 Tax Rebate Stimulate Spending? Evidence From Taxpayer Surveys. Tax Policy and the Economy 17
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Slemrod, Joel . 2003. Consumer response to tax rebates. American Economic Review 93(1):381-396.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Feenstra, Robert C. 2003. High-Frequency Substitution and the Measurement of Price Indexes. Scanner Data and Price Indexes :381-396.
- Traugott, Michael W, Brader, Ted, Curtin, Richard T, Jackson, James Sidney, Kinder, Donald R, Shapiro, Matthew D, Tessler, Mark A, Weir, David R, Willis, Robert J, Featherman, David, Groves, Robert M., Hill, Martha Scott, Juster, F. Thomas, Kahn, Robert L., Pennell, Beth-Ellen, Coral, Deborah A, Kennedy, C . 2002. How Americans Responded: A Study of Public Reactions to 9/11/01. PS-Political Science & Politics 35(3):511-516.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Basu, Susanto , Fernald, John G. 2001. Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?. Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 55(1):117-165.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2001. Measuring the Value of Cataract Surgery, with Irving Shapiro and David W. Wilcox. Medical Care Output and Productivity
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Ramey, Valerie A. 2001. Displaced capital: a study of aerospace plant closings. Journal of Political Economy 109(5):958-992.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Blank, Rebecca M. 2001. Labor and the Sustainability of Output and Productivity Growth. The Roaring Nineties: Can Full Employment Be Sustained?
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2000. Social Security Reform and National Saving in an Era of Budget Surpluses: Comment. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2000(2):1-71.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Shapiro, Irving , Wilcox, David W. 1999. Quality Improvement in Health Care: A Framework for Price and Output Measurement. American Economic Review 89(2):333-337.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Ramey, Valerie A. 1998. Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending. Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 48:145-194.
- Kimball, Miles S, Shapiro, Matthew D, Barsky, Robert B., Juster, F. Thomas. 1997. Preference parameters and behavioral heterogeneity: An experimental approach in the health and retirement study. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 112(2):537.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Wilcox, David W. 1997. Alternative Strategies for Aggregating Prices in the CPI. Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Review 79(3):113-125.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1997. Do "Shortages" Cause Inflation? Comment. Reducing inflation: Motivation and strategy 30:301-304.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Wilcox, David W. 1996. Mismeasurement in the Consumer Price Index: An Evaluation. NBER macroeconomics annual 1996 :93-142.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1996. Macroeconomic Implications of Variation in the Workweek of Capital. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2):79-119.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Slemrod, Joel . 1995. Consumer Response to the Timing of Income: Evidence from a Change in Tax Withholding. American Economic Review 85(1):274-283.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1994. Productivity and Real Wages: Is There a Puzzle? Comments. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1):336-341.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1994. Federal Reserve Policy: Cause and Effect. Monetary policy. Studies in Business Cycles 29:307-332.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1993. Cyclical Productivity and the Workweek of Capital. American Economic Review 83(2):229-233.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Mankiw, N Gregory, Romer, David H. 1991. Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal. Review of Economic Studies 58(3):455-477.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Brainard, William C, Shoven, John B. 1991. Fundamental Value and Market Value. Money, macroeconomics, and economic policy: Essays in honor of James Tobin. :277-307.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1990. The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow: Comments. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2):203-208.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1989. Assessing the Federal Reserve’s Measures of Capacity and Utilization. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 0(1):181-225.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1989. Assessing the Federal Reserve's Measures of Capacity and Utilization. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1):181-225.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1989. Inventories, Orders, Temporary and Permanent Layoffs: An Econometric Analysis: Comment. Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 30:367-373.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Dominguez, Kathryn M, Fair, Ray C. 1988. Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale. American Economic Review 78(4):595-612.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1988. Political vs. Currency Premia in International Real Interest Rate Differentials: Comments. European Economic Review 32(5):1114-1118.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1988. The Stabilization of the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Marke t. American Economic Review 78(5):1067-1079.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1987. Are Cyclical Fluctuation in Productivity Due More to Supply Shocks or Demand Shocks?. American Economic Review 77(2):118-124.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1986. Capital and Saving in a Share Economy. Journal of Comparative Economics 10(4):444-447.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Mankiw, N Gregory. 1986. Risk and Return: Consumption Beta versus Market Beta. Review of Economics and Statistics 68(3):452-459.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Mankiw, N Gregory. 1986. News or Noise: An Analysis of GNP Revisions. Survey of Current Business 66(5):20-25.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1986. The Dynamic Demand for Capital and Labor. Quarterly Journal of Economics 101(3):513-542.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1986. Investment, Output, and the Cost of Capital. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1):111-152.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1986. Capital Utilization and Capital Accumulation: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Applied Econometrics 1(3):211-234.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Mankiw, N Gregory, Romer, David H. 1985. An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility. Journal of Finance 40(3):677-687.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Mankiw, N Gregory. 1985. Trends, Random Walks, and Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis. Journal of Monetary Economics 40(September):165-174.
- Shapiro, Matthew D, Mankiw, N Gregory, Runkle, David E. 1984. Are Preliminary Announcements of the Money Stock Rational Forecasts?. Journal of Monetary Economics 14(1):15-27.